Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP)

In NCEI’s database of billion-dollar flooding disasters, many of the most significant events occur in the late Winter or early Spring due to rain and snowmelt overcoming stream and river channel capacity. These events individually frequently reach $5-10 billion in damages.

The authors show that there is the potential to extend 12-month operational forecasts of El Niño and La Niña events by one additional year.

In 2019, a prolonged drought and unusual high summer temperature induced an unprecedented fire season in Southcentral Alaska. The following questions would arise: Is the 2019 disaster attributed to anthropogenic climate change? Do we expect more fire seasons in the future in Southcentral Alaska like 2019?

Large lakes have a substantial effect on regional and local weather patterns. However, in climate models used to investigate future climate changes, lakes are greatly simplified and sometimes absent due to the inclusion of lakes adding complexity and cost. New research analyzes climate models and discussess the barriers faced in uncovering the treatment of large lakes.

New research could explain recent extreme marine heatwaves, and points to a future with more frequent and extreme heat waves as global temperatures continue to rise.

Results show that incorporating observations improves the simulation of the drought category, detection of drought conditions, and reduces instances of drought false alarms.